Martin D. Weiss writes: The proposal before Congress for a $700 billion mega-bailout is far too little to repair the damaged debt and derivatives markets … and, at the same time, far too much for investors and taxpayers who must put up the money.
How big is the problem, really?
In the past, Congress has repeatedly asked us for data and analysis on these issues, and we have provided it in Congressional testimony and white papers. In that same tradition, below is a partial first draft of a white paper we will be submitting on this matter:
Why the Magnitude of the Mortgage, Debt and Derivatives Crisis Overwhelms The $700 Billion Bailout Plan Now Under Discussion in Congress
(Partial First Draft of Weiss Research’s Submission
to Congress and Federal Banking Regulators)
Last week, the President, the Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman announced their view that Congress must get to the root of the debt crisis in America by providing a broad solution that truly puts the crisis to an end.
However, the magnitude of the crisis afflicting mortgages, other debts and derivatives clearly overwhelms the $700 billion bailout proposal currently under discussion. To better understand the magnitude of the problem …
First and foremost, we urge members of Congress to disregard data based on the list of troubled banks maintained by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).
The FDIC’s list has only 117 institutions with $78 billion in assets. But given the current proposal for a $700 billion bailout, it is clear that Administration officials tacitly recognize that the FDIC list understates the problem. There are many more financial institutions at risk or in need of assistance with their toxic paper.
How many more? We believe a more accurate count comes from our analysis of: (a) the derivative risks assumed by major banks, (b) the mortgage holdings of the largest regional banks and (c) all banks and thrifts with TheStreet.com’s financial strength rating of D+ (weak) or lower. Based on this analysis, we believe:
1,479 FDIC member banks are at risk of failure with total assets of $2.4 trillion.
In addition, 158 savings and loans are at risk with $756 billion in assets.
In sum, banks and S&Ls at risk have assets of $3.2 trillion, or over 36 times the assets of banks on the FDIC’s watch list.
These numbers alone indicate that the $700 billion contemplated for the bailout plan could be severely inadequate.
Second, Congress should seriously consider the facts in the Federal Reserve’s Second Quarter Flow of Funds Report .
In this report, released on September 18, just one day before the President announced the Administration’s $700 billion bailout proposal, the Fed estimates that the nation’s mountain of interest-bearing debts has now grown to $51 trillion.
Plus, it provides critical additional insights regarding the breadth of the debt problems facing the nation, as follows:
1. The ownership of residential mortgages is dispersed among many different sectors. There are $12.1 trillion in mortgages on single- and multi-family homes in the United States. But these are not held only by banks and S&Ls. They are spread among a wide variety of institutions and individuals, all of which could have similar claims to federal assistance.
Specifically …
2. Fannie, Freddie and GSAs are still at risk. As a first priority, the plan would have to expand the recently announced bailouts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to properly secure the residential mortgages held by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) and agencies (GSAs). These now total $5.4 trillion, according to the Fed.
Plus …
3. Private sectors and local governments also own residential mortgages in substantial quantities. The bailout plan would also have to cover:
Investment banks and others that issue asset-backed securities, now holding $2.1 trillion in mortgages,
Nonbank finance companies ($426 billion),
Credit unions ($332.4 billion),
State and local governments ($159 billion),
Life insurance companies ($61.6 billion), plus …
Private pension funds, government retirement funds and households themselves.
4. Commercial mortgages are now going bad as well. The current debate seems to focus exclusively on residential mortgages. But at many regional and super-regional banks, much of the risk is currently in the commercial mortgage sector, where recent data denotes many of the same difficulties as the residential sector. To truly get to the root of the problem, Congress cannot exclude these either.
There are $2.6 trillion in commercial mortgages outstanding in the United States. As with residential mortgages, these are also dispersed widely beyond the banking sector — $644 billion held by issuers of asset-backed securities, $263 billion held by life insurers, $65 billion at nonbank finance companies and $37 billion at Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
5. Mortgages are less than hal
Recent Comments