In a significant move the Centre has decided to come up with a greater Capital Account Convertibility (CAS) of the Indian currency in a few days. The central bank has also appointed a six-person committee to produce a “road map” toward that goal by July 31.
What is Capital Account Convertibility ?
The Capital Account Convertibility, (CAS) of the Indian Currency means, removal of restrictions on cross border movement of capital, no matter whether from India to rest of the world or the vise-versa. The formal regime of capital account convertibility, when in place , will allow all residents, including companies or individuals or other entities, to invest , divest or transect in any property or asserts/liability of any country. One could convert one currency to another or move funds anywhere in the world, according to one?s personal choice, which will be unrestricted by law of the land.
Pre Conditions for Capital Account Convertibility
The RBI had appointed the Tarapore committee to make recommendations on making the rupee fully convertible. The panel had submitted its report in 1997. The panel had recommended a three year time frame for complete convertibility by 1999-2000 subject to satisfying certain conditions These pre conditions includes
(1) Bringing down gross fiscal deficit to GDP ratio to 3.5% in 1999-2000,
(2) The inflation rate should remain at average 3-5% for the above three year period.
(3) Designing external sector policies to increase current receipt to GDP ratio and bringing down the debt servicing ratio from 25% to 20%.
(4) The gross NPAs of the public sector banking system needs to be brought down to 5% by 2000 and the CRR to brought down to 3%.
The Present scenario
The economic conditions stands now are, the gross fiscal deficit is 4.1% and estimated to come down to 3.8% of GDP in the next fiscal. The WPI- based inflation rates hanging over 4% so far in this fiscal. The current account deficit is below 3% and foreign debt is lower by $1, 61, 030 million (foreign debt was $124,326 million on Sept 2005 QE) than the country?s $1,40,429 million (as on Feb 10 2006) Forex reserves which could cover all most 13 months? imports. The gross NPA in the banking system is hinges on 5.2 % where as the CRR is 5% currently.
Whether A Boon or A Bane
At present, the Indian rupees is fully convertible on the current account for free trade in goods and services and transfer of remittances. Indian companies? borrowing abroad, investments in abroad, individuals? ability to invest in stocks and property abroad, these are restricted by lack of convertibility. The gross domestic product GDP has registered a robust 7% to 8% growth in the last few years, along with inflation moderating to 4%.The economic fundamentals are strong , the air of optimisim is thick in the air, as the foreign investors investing their money on the Bombay Stock Exchange, BSE. The BSE sensex has already crossed11000 points. The Capital convertibility will give companies the much needed flexibility and negotiating power to raise capital in any currencies at finer rates to acquire foreign assets with foreign capital, full convertibility seems the way to go now. The Removal of these restrictions will help Indian economic agents exploit the opportunities around the world.
Risk of Foreign portfolio Capital
However the full convertibility poses major challenges as well. The flow of capital into India are generally of three types, VIZ, portfolio equity, direct investment and loan capital (both long term and short term).These different type of foreign capital flow have varying impact on balance of payment, capital market and the financial sector of our country .The port folio capital which is coming in to our country by the way of investments in equities and bonds floats in the stock market. Portfolio capital flows could increase to more significant levels in the future as India?s financial market would integrated globally in convertibility regime.
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